In a new report from Vaclav Smil, the eminent professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, has suggested that a move to zero carbon by 2050 is looking highly unlikely. In his report, Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon is a Highly Unlikely Outcome, Smil argues that zero carbon by 2050 is highly unlikely due to the fact that overall CO2 emissions have grown by 54 percent since 1997. Absolute cuts of minus 23 percent in the EU and minus nine percent in the US were offset by China’s CO2 rising by more than three times, with India’s CO2 also up by three times.
In fact, figures indicate that halfway through the energy transition, nations have only achieved a small decline in fossil fuel share, from 86 percent in 1997 to 82 percent in 2022. However, this marginal decrease has also come hand-in-hand with a massive increase in fossil fuel consumption. In 2022 the world consumed 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.
With China and India, two of the world’s largest industrial nations, making massive gains in CO2 emissions compared to the cuts made by the EU and the US, the conclusion is clear. In the 25 years of targeted energy transition there has been absolutely no decarbonisation in the energy supply as of 2023. In fact, the world has increased its dependence on fossil carbon from 25.5 billion tons of CO2e in 1997 to around 39.3 billion tons in 2022.
The cost of the energy transition is also eye-watering. The US alone would need to spend around $5 trillion per year on decarbonisation efforts which is 20 percent of its current $25 trillion gross domestic product (GDP). The total cost of the energy transition will be a staggering $275 trillion according to a study by McKinsey and Company. However, as Smil points out, inevitable delays and cost overruns could bring the total cost to $440 trillion, more than a 60 percent cost rise.
The use of vital metals such as copper is also a key issue. Copper is used in most electronic gadgets, cars, appliances and power grids across the world. In order to replace today’s 1.35 billion cars and heavy trucks would require 150 million tons of additional copper over the next 27 years.
Clare Miszewska-Hall, Head of Global Sales and Marketing at AnTech, explains: “Many of the barriers that stand in the way of us reaching Net-Zero targets are made up of financial considerations. As Vaclav Smil expertly highlights, a “rapid and inexpensive transition” is “impossible” and leans into the narrative that Net-Zero can be achieved without compromises to standards of living and other major sacrifices.
“The cost of decarbonisation is truly staggering, and this is why nations across the world need to consider discarding the myth that a whole new set of technology is required in order to reach Net-Zero targets. The cost of designing and implementing new technology alone, makes it an almost impossible task.
“The technology that can make a real difference in our Net-Zero journey in many cases already exists and could be implemented to allow us to move forward. Due to a lack of collaboration, current technology has either not been recognised or dismissed entirely because it is being implemented in the oil and gas industry.
“For example, hydrogen will play an important role in the energy transition and there will be a need for technology to be able to contain it. Drilling new underground storage for hydrogen and carbon capture is something that existing technology could easily adapt to and is in some cases already doing.
“Another key component on the journey to Net-Zero will be geothermal energy. Existing technology already used in the oil and gas sectors can help to monitor the extremely high temperatures needed in geothermal wells to produce electricity, helping to reduce both risk and cost.
“As the world struggles with its Net-Zero plan, by looking at the technology that already exists in the oil and gas industry there is an opportunity to make real strides forward in our move towards a sustainable, cost-conscious and ultimately greener future,” concluded Miszewska-Hall.
