by Gavin Blackett, Acting Executive Director, The OR Society
As the UK’s push for Net Zero accelerates, Operational Research (OR) is quietly driving change behind the rollout of renewables. Combining mathematics, data science, simulation, and analytics, OR helps energy organisations solve complex problems and make smarter, faster decisions critical to system transformation.
Achieving Net Zero requires more than generating green energy, it demands a resilient, intelligent grid that can integrate renewables and adapt to climate volatility. OR is helping make that possible. Two experts working in this field are Chris Dent, Professor of Industrial Mathematics, and Dr. Lars Schewe, Reader in Operational Research, at University of Edinburgh who have worked on projects aimed at future-proofing the UK’s energy networks, with OR playing a key role.
Managing Complexity in Modern Energy Networks
The UK’s energy grid, once centralised and dominated by large generators, has become increasingly decentralised. As Schewe explained thousands of smaller units such as solar farms and wind turbines now feed into the grid, introducing new layers of complexity, especially since these sources are highly weather-dependent. Generating electricity without fossil fuels is not only an engineering challenge but also a significant mathematical one.
Dent said that to meet the target of decarbonising the electricity supply by the mid-2030s, the UK must accelerate research and innovation. With renewable sources being weather-dependent, there is a need for sophisticated prediction and decision-making tools to manage energy demand, plan for outages, and support faster decision-making.
As Schewe pointed out more automated tools are needed to manage the growing complexity of the system, where currently, there’s still heavy reliance on manual processes, which is one example of where OR can be used to ease the decision-making load by automating many routine tasks.
Optimising Outage Planning for a Net Zero Grid
Schewe is involved in the NESO (National Energy System Operator) Optimal Outage Planning System project, designed to support the transition to a net-zero energy system. Using Optimal Power Flow (OPF) models, the project generates potential scenarios to manage overloads and ensure grid stability. The goal is to optimise the UK’s energy network, particularly as renewable energy sources like wind and solar increase in prevalence, ensuring future resilience.
Outage planning is currently based on worst-case scenarios, with limited consideration for the impact of changing system conditions, such as fluctuations in generation or weather, or how one outage might influence another. This approach has traditionally relied on “rules of thumb.” With the rapid pace of change, these methods are starting to show their limitations, especially as much of the work is spent reacting to situations and re-planning.
The project seeks to incorporate improved risk estimation into the Network Access Planning (NAP) process, enabling more efficient and flexible management of outages. A key focus is on improving network access to accelerate construction and maintenance while keeping the system responsive to the demands and conditions of a decarbonised grid.
Schewe highlights the need for better tools – not just for forecasting, but for enabling faster decision-making, explaining that the bottleneck is often not data quality itself, but the decision-making process. Engineers still rely heavily on their judgment even in routine cases, which can slow response times. The project has demonstrated that OR can help by automating routine tasks.
Climate Resilience and Future Challenges
Climate change is complicating energy systems, as extreme weather events increasingly disrupt multiple assets. Dent, who is more involved in climate resilience projects and energy network planning, warns that current models may not be sufficient to address these risks due to data gaps.
He highlights the importance of learning from past events like the 2019 and 2022 heatwaves, with insights from those managing the system during these events invaluable in helping to build models to predict how the system will respond to future climate challenges.
As the UK’s energy system becomes more interconnected with Europe, Dent also stresses that managing climate-related risks will require sophisticated tools; especially as renewable energy sources grow in prominence. There is a growing need to think about how everything fits together computationally, but OR will play a key role in managing these risks and ensuring future resilience.
Looking Ahead
OR will be essential in the future for managing the growing complexity of modern energy networks, helping to predict demand, integrate renewables, and maintain grid stability. As Europe’s systems become more interconnected OR will also support cross-border coordination. It is a key discipline in transforming the UK’s grid, making it smarter, more resilient, and better prepared for the challenges of climate change.
