A new energy report that has recently been published by StatPlan Energy, has highlighted that the rapid development of more and more generating capacity in the energy market is not a given despite so much talk about renewables and new fossil fuel energy sources that can be processed in more environmentally friendly ways.
The Generating Capacity and Demand Forecast 2012 – 2050 report makes a series of predictions:
1. Globally, the pace of power generation capacity development is currently slowing and will continue to do so until 2025.
2. As time goes on, the role of asset base renewal activity (ensuring existing capacity continues to produce, through replacement, retro-fitting or upgrading) will increase to reflect peaks in the development of new capacity in the past that is now in need of attention if it is to continue to contribute.
3. Activity levels around the world are steadily changing. Europe and North America will continue to contribute substantially to the global total, as they always have, but China’s contribution will reduce from its current inflated level until 2045, when it will again become the key contributor as today’s new build becomes due for replacement. Other Asian countries (particularly those considered to be in ‘the next 11’ after the BRIC countries) will become much more significant, fuelled by relatively rapid growth of their energy infrastructure and the need to meet the needs of rising populations with higher aspirations.
4. The shape of the industry going forward is reflected in how and when it has developed in the past. StatPlan considers the world divides into six broad segments.
Euan Blauvelt, report author and director of StatPlan Energy, said, “The meeting of demand for new generation capacity is not necessarily linear. It is in fact a cyclical market, proven by historical record, and right now, at a global level, those that live off the development of generating capacity should realise we are in a period of steady decline in the pace of new build and asset base renewal activity that will last until 2025.
“A dangerous assumption was made in the 1980s, that if we (the manufacturers) build it, they (the market) will come to get it. That error cost jobs and even companies. When we reach our next peak of demand, the market will have changed and will be based on asset base renewal, not new build.”
The report has implications for long term planners. Where to locate plant, where to focus long term building effort and what products and services to offer the market.
Details of how to purchase ‘Generating Capacity and Demand Forecast 2012 – 2050’ can be found at www.statplanenergy.com. This report provides detailed assessment of the future of energy generation globally, regionally and by major country. A second new title, ‘The Electricity Markets Yearbook 2012’ provides a detailed picture by country of generation, transmission and distribution and limited forecast information.